3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 52.2%), based on 3.0K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 27% → 42%
Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.5% win rate for white (926 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (46.1%) outperforms Rapid (42.6%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 106 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 36.3% (90% CI: 29.9%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 40.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 409 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.0%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 730 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 926 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 556 Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 12.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.3%-49.5%) win rate for white (516 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 37.6%-47.7%) win rate for white (258 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.4%.
The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Modern Steinitz Defense, Fianchetto Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.