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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit

64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.4%Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.7%Based on 64K games
0%54.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 54.7%
Outcome Distribution
52.7%3.3%44.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.c3
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit
Analyzen=64K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 54.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.0% and 54.7%), based on 64K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.4% · Breakpoint: 2500+

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.5% win rate (2,803 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.6% win rate (5,927 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.4% win rate (9,768 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.0% win rate (12,821 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (13,938 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.5% win rate (11,563 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (5,903 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (1,541 games)
  • 2500+: 46.2% win rate (149 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (55%), worst in UltraBullet (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 30.4% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 54.6% win rate (18,316 games)
  • Blitz: 52.5% win rate (33,373 games)
  • Rapid: 50.5% win rate (12,191 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (523 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (788 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,471 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (537 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (1,976 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,915 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (2,944 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (4,962 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,367 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (6,846 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (2,464 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (3,867 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (7,128 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,800 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (143 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (2,783 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (6,243 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (2,384 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,599 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (3,260 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (854 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (540 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 64K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.6%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 7.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 39.5%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 149 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.0%-55.2%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.9%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.2%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 43.8%-51.0%) win rate for white (523 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Jaffe Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.