TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense

39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.1%Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 51.5%Based on 39K games
0%51.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
48.4%5.4%46.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nge7
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense
Analyzen=39K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 51.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 51.5%), based on 39K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.8% win rate (406 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.3% win rate (1,205 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.6% win rate (2,866 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.2% win rate (4,641 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (4,619 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.0% win rate (5,122 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (6,860 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.2% win rate (8,334 games)
  • 2500+: 46.5% win rate (5,147 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (7,880 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (25,709 games)
  • Rapid: 50.4% win rate (5,391 games)
  • Classical: 50.3% win rate (220 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (194 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (434 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (617 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (150 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (1,753 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (460 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (878 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,698 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,027 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (654 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (2,759 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (1,140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (522 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (3,447 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (1,095 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (668 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (5,292 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (870 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,819 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (5,948 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (2,103 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (3,001 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (43 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 39K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (406 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.4%) outperforms Classical (50.3%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 55.8% (90% CI: 51.8%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 406 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.0%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.5%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 44.8%-55.9%) win rate for white (220 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Cozio Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.