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Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation

1.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.0%Range (90% confident): 43.9% – 44.1%Based on 1.0M games
0%44.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.9% – 44.1%
Outcome Distribution
42.1%3.7%54.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...b5
Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation
Analyzen=1.0M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 44.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.9% and 44.1%), based on 1.0M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.5% win rate (69,577 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.4% win rate (140,210 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.9% win rate (199,104 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.0% win rate (215,137 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.7% win rate (187,722 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.7% win rate (139,240 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.3% win rate (66,884 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.4% win rate (22,880 games)
  • 2500+: 33.6% win rate (3,163 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (44%), worst in UltraBullet (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 34.7% win rate (49 games)
  • Bullet: 43.8% win rate (184,646 games)
  • Blitz: 42.3% win rate (569,034 games)
  • Rapid: 40.7% win rate (276,830 games)
  • Classical: 37.4% win rate (13,358 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (17,110 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (36,713 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (15,569 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (181 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (29,719 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (77,616 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (32,154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (705 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (33,163 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (110,470 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (53,762 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (1,695 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (33,636 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (113,463 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (64,010 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (4,015 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (26,702 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (101,573 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (55,236 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (4,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (20,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (79,670 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (37,514 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (2,007 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (12,447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (38,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (15,381 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (477 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (9,437 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (10,344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (3,050 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (2,384 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (606 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 55.6% win rate for white (140K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.7%) outperforms Bullet (53.7%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 55.4%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 140K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 199K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.3%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 215K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 188K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 139K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 18.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.9%) win rate for white (185K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.7%-53.9%) win rate for white (569K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.8%-55.2%) win rate for white (277K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation has a 57.7% (90% CI: 57.0%-58.4%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense, Caro Variation is statistically favors white with a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.