TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack

21K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score64.1%Range (90% confident): 63.5% – 64.7%Based on 21K games
0%64.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 63.5% – 64.7%
Outcome Distribution
62.4%3.3%34.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
11...Nf6
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack
Analyzen=21K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 64.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 63.5% and 64.7%), based on 21K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +28.9% · Breakpoint: Never

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (6 games)
  • 1000-1199: 63.1% win rate (50 games)
  • 1200-1399: 59.8% win rate (180 games)
  • 1400-1599: 63.6% win rate (668 games)
  • 1600-1799: 64.8% win rate (2,487 games)
  • 1800-1999: 65.0% win rate (6,338 games)
  • 2000-2199: 62.4% win rate (7,028 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.1% win rate (3,526 games)
  • 2500+: 49.5% win rate (363 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (65%), worst in Rapid (58%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 64.5% win rate (4,806 games)
  • Blitz: 62.5% win rate (12,878 games)
  • Rapid: 58.3% win rate (2,843 games)
  • Classical: 59.3% win rate (119 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 68.0% expected score (68 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 81.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 64.1% expected score (293 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (316 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 67.1% expected score (812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 65.7% expected score (1,392 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (258 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.4% expected score (1,191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (4,327 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (780 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 64.5% expected score (1,309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 64.4% expected score (4,444 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (1,237 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 66.5% expected score (858 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (2,189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (471 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (235 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 34.3% (90% CI: 33.7%-34.8%) win rate for white, based on 21K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 38.7% win rate for white (3.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (37.5%) outperforms Classical (35.3%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 39.4% (90% CI: 33.5%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 180 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 0.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 35.0% (90% CI: 32.0%-38.1%) win rate for white, based on 668 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 33.3% (90% CI: 31.8%-34.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 31.9% (90% CI: 30.9%-32.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 33.9% (90% CI: 33.0%-34.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 38.7% (90% CI: 37.4%-40.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 40.7% (90% CI: 36.5%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 363 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 33.1% (90% CI: 32.0%-34.2%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 34.0% (90% CI: 33.3%-34.7%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 37.5% (90% CI: 36.0%-39.0%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack has a 35.3% (90% CI: 28.3%-42.5%) win rate for white (119 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Original Marshall Attack is slightly favors black with a 34.3% (90% CI: 33.7%-34.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.