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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line

58K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score43.7%Range (90% confident): 43.3% – 44.0%Based on 58K games
0%43.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.3% – 44.0%
Outcome Distribution
38.8%9.8%51.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
14...Qh3
Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line
Analyzen=58K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness90%
Draw Rate9.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 43.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.3% and 44.0%), based on 58K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 35% → 19%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 35.1% win rate (17 games)
  • 1000-1199: 29.6% win rate (78 games)
  • 1200-1399: 30.0% win rate (330 games)
  • 1400-1599: 35.9% win rate (1,771 games)
  • 1600-1799: 35.9% win rate (6,608 games)
  • 1800-1999: 38.6% win rate (17,064 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.3% win rate (18,445 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.5% win rate (9,129 games)
  • 2500+: 18.5% win rate (4,268 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (40%), worst in Classical (34%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 36.7% win rate (12,864 games)
  • Blitz: 39.8% win rate (36,278 games)
  • Rapid: 37.7% win rate (8,173 games)
  • Classical: 33.9% win rate (395 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 27.9% expected score (46 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 31.6% expected score (208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 31.3% expected score (100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 37.6% expected score (705 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (935 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (126 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (1,623 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.1% expected score (4,348 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 32.8% expected score (588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (2,784 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (11,819 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (2,317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (144 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (3,136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11,734 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (3,442 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (133 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (2,203 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (5,610 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (1,289 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,145 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,706 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (381 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (36 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 38.8% (90% CI: 38.4%-39.1%) win rate for white, based on 58K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.5% win rate for white (9.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (39.8%) outperforms Classical (33.9%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a sharpness score of 90.2 (decisive), meaning 90.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 30.0% (90% CI: 25.9%-34.2%) win rate for white, based on 330 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 35.9% (90% CI: 34.0%-37.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 35.9% (90% CI: 35.0%-36.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 38.6% (90% CI: 38.0%-39.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.7%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.6%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 18.5% (90% CI: 17.6%-19.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 55 moves with a 61.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 36.7% (90% CI: 36.0%-37.4%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 39.8% (90% CI: 39.4%-40.3%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 37.7% (90% CI: 36.8%-38.5%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line has a 33.9% (90% CI: 30.1%-37.9%) win rate for white (395 Lichess games). Draw rate is 17.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Marshall Attack, Modern Main Line is slightly favors black with a 38.8% (90% CI: 38.4%-39.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.