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Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation

87K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 53.8%Based on 87K games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.3%4.3%44.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Be7
Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation
Analyzen=87K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 53.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.3% and 53.8%), based on 87K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (3,407 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.5% win rate (8,338 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.7% win rate (14,426 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.8% win rate (17,808 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.3% win rate (17,331 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.8% win rate (13,952 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.7% win rate (7,554 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.6% win rate (3,320 games)
  • 2500+: 33.6% win rate (444 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.5% win rate (80 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (25,802 games)
  • Blitz: 51.4% win rate (45,119 games)
  • Rapid: 52.2% win rate (14,954 games)
  • Classical: 53.1% win rate (625 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,042 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,654 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (687 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (2,385 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (4,361 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (3,732 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (7,383 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (3,129 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (160 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (5,110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (8,730 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (3,735 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (213 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,723 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (9,429 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (3,055 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (3,995 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (8,019 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,872 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (63 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,741 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (4,053 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,702 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (1,439 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (372 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 88.5% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 87K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.5%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 33.6% (90% CI: 29.9%-37.3%) win rate for white, based on 444 Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 43.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.8%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-56.3%) win rate for white (625 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Lucena Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.