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Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation

22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.6%Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 51.1%Based on 22K games
0%50.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 51.1%
Outcome Distribution
48.1%5.0%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.d3
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation
Analyzen=22K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 50.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 51.1%), based on 22K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.6% win rate (1,711 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (3,769 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.1% win rate (4,899 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.2% win rate (4,331 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.9% win rate (3,132 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.1% win rate (2,271 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (1,198 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.9% win rate (746 games)
  • 2500+: 46.8% win rate (130 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (5,234 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (12,021 games)
  • Rapid: 48.0% win rate (4,744 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (186 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (423 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (929 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (357 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (794 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (773 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (973 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,634 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,252 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (869 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (2,260 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (1,134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (717 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (1,699 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (680 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (606 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (413 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (628 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (150 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (345 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (298 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 22K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (4.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (42.9%) by 7.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 41.9%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 746 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 39.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 130 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.9%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.2%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 37.0%-48.9%) win rate for white (186 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Romanovsky Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.