TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation

384K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%Based on 384K games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.3%4.8%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.O-O
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation
Analyzen=384K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 53.8%), based on 384K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.1% win rate (18,385 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.4% win rate (42,035 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.1% win rate (56,725 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.0% win rate (62,142 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.1% win rate (62,253 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (62,608 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.0% win rate (45,431 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (28,856 games)
  • 2500+: 50.6% win rate (5,929 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~53%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.4% win rate (67 games)
  • Bullet: 52.5% win rate (89,662 games)
  • Blitz: 50.7% win rate (213,663 games)
  • Rapid: 51.4% win rate (77,787 games)
  • Classical: 50.9% win rate (3,185 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (5,069 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (9,402 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (3,874 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (9,728 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (22,999 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (9,162 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (127 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (11,301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (30,069 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (14,862 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (479 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (13,073 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (31,501 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (16,665 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (887 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (13,985 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (34,398 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (13,045 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (819 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (13,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (37,633 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (11,336 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (602 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (10,012 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (28,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (6,488 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (10,196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (16,407 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (2,190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (3,264 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (2,494 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.9% expected score (165 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 384K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (42K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.4%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 11.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.7%) win rate for white (90K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white (214K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.7%) win rate for white (78K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.3%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Normal Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.