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Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation

660K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.8%Range (90% confident): 41.7% – 41.9%Based on 660K games
0%41.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.7% – 41.9%
Outcome Distribution
39.6%4.4%56.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...bxc6
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation
Analyzen=660K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 41.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.7% and 41.9%), based on 660K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.7% win rate (103,044 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.1% win rate (169,467 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.4% win rate (173,794 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.6% win rate (121,299 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.8% win rate (58,054 games)
  • 1800-1999: 39.3% win rate (23,302 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.2% win rate (7,507 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.9% win rate (2,767 games)
  • 2500+: 36.1% win rate (432 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (42%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.7% win rate (110 games)
  • Bullet: 41.7% win rate (96,049 games)
  • Blitz: 39.8% win rate (344,635 games)
  • Rapid: 38.5% win rate (210,437 games)
  • Classical: 36.3% win rate (8,435 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (18,528 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (55,367 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (28,906 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (225 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (24,225 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (95,041 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (49,175 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (1,001 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (20,924 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (92,120 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (58,352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (2,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 20.8% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (14,232 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (59,174 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (44,770 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (3,092 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (8,803 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (27,090 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (20,798 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (1,361 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (5,220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (10,925 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (6,803 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (2,385 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (3,626 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (1,465 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (1,423 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (1,177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (160 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.3% expected score (309 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (115 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 660K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 56.8% win rate for white (169K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (57.8%) by 0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 103K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 169K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 56.1%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 174K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 121K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.2%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.5%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.4%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 58.2% (90% CI: 54.3%-62.1%) win rate for white, based on 432 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 57.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-65.4%) win rate for white (110 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 55.3%-55.8%) win rate for white (96K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.6%-55.8%) win rate for white (345K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 56.5%-56.8%) win rate for white (210K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 57.6%-59.4%) win rate for white (8.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Lutikov Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.