TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation

278K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 53.8%Based on 278K games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%5.4%43.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nc3
Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation
Analyzen=278K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 53.8%), based on 278K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.7% win rate (14,595 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.6% win rate (36,751 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.8% win rate (56,954 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.2% win rate (61,645 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.6% win rate (46,786 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.8% win rate (29,481 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.9% win rate (16,087 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.1% win rate (12,886 games)
  • 2500+: 53.8% win rate (3,080 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Classical (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 58.7% win rate (30 games)
  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (59,246 games)
  • Blitz: 50.8% win rate (153,565 games)
  • Rapid: 50.0% win rate (62,832 games)
  • Classical: 49.5% win rate (2,592 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (7,724 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (2,651 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (8,474 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (20,930 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (7,249 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (10,886 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (31,752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (13,858 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (452 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (10,875 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (33,081 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (16,910 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (774 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (8,574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (25,006 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (12,425 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (776 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (6,603 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (16,216 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (6,291 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (3,895 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (9,788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (2,314 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (4,227 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (7,563 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (1,512 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (1,505 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (63 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 278K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (49.5%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 12.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.6%) win rate for white (59K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (154K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.9%-51.1%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Exchange Variation, Keres Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.