25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 50.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 50.9%), based on 25K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 46%
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 25K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 45.5% win rate for white (9.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.5%) outperforms Classical (35.7%) by 11.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 88.9 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 39.9% (90% CI: 34.2%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 190 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 39.3% (90% CI: 35.7%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 499 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 40.5%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 983 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.2%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 10.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 12.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 16.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.6%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.1%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation has a 39.6% (90% CI: 37.9%-41.4%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.7%.
The Ruy Lopez: Exchange, Alekhine Variation is statistically balanced with a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.