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Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation

50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.7%Based on 50K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
45.3%4.0%50.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...g6
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation
Analyzen=50K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 47.7%), based on 50K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.9% win rate (1,429 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.9% win rate (4,965 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.9% win rate (9,446 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.4% win rate (11,701 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (9,503 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (5,733 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (3,177 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.6% win rate (3,095 games)
  • 2500+: 39.3% win rate (819 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 46.9% win rate (9,561 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (29,355 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (10,545 games)
  • Classical: 44.0% win rate (402 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (462 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (777 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,071 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (720 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (5,614 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,982 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (73 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,859 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (6,632 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (3,091 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (1,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (5,519 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (2,611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (915 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (3,536 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (670 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,991 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (496 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 17.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (926 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (1,956 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (206 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (545 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (259 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 50K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.2% win rate for white (3.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.0%) outperforms Classical (51.7%) by -0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 53.7%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 819 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.3%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.8%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-55.8%) win rate for white (402 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense, Paulsen Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.