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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense

5.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 50.3%Based on 5.6K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 50.3%
Outcome Distribution
45.7%7.0%47.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
11...Nd7
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense
Analyzen=5.6K
Avg Length42 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.0%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 50.3%), based on 5.6K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 14% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 27.3% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 65.5% win rate (13 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (36 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.3% win rate (161 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (654 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (1,611 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.2% win rate (2,417 games)
  • 2500+: 39.6% win rate (666 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (54%), worst in Rapid (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.7% win rate (966 games)
  • Blitz: 46.2% win rate (4,095 games)
  • Rapid: 40.7% win rate (476 games)
  • Classical: 54.4% win rate (27 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (116 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 27.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (85 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (178 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (417 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,821 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (175 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (211 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (419 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.0% win rate for white (2.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.2%) outperforms Rapid (48.3%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a sharpness score of 93.0 (decisive), meaning 93.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 43.7%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 161 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 42.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 654 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 666 Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 12.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-52.8%) win rate for white (966 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.9%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 44.5%-52.0%) win rate for white (476 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.0%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Keres Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.