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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation

2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.9%Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 54.6%Based on 2.2K games
0%52.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 54.6%
Outcome Distribution
49.0%7.7%43.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Nd7
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation
Analyzen=2.2K
Avg Length43 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.2% and 54.6%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 56%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 69.2% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 61.0% win rate (19 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.3% win rate (53 games)
  • 1600-1799: 59.0% win rate (79 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (242 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.7% win rate (729 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.3% win rate (936 games)
  • 2500+: 56.0% win rate (160 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (69%), worst in Rapid (47%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (420 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (1,592 games)
  • Rapid: 46.5% win rate (191 games)
  • Classical: 68.9% win rate (21 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 66.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (185 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (95 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (216 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (666 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 66.4% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 89.2% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 59.0% win rate for white (79 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.0%) outperforms Rapid (46.5%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 41.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 242 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 41.7%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 729 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 936 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 57 moves with a 17.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.2%-53.2%) win rate for white (420 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.9%-51.0%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 40.6%-52.4%) win rate for white (191 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Karpov Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.