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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.3%Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 50.7%Based on 41K games
0%50.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%5.5%46.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Bg4
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation
Analyzen=41K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 50.7%), based on 41K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.4% win rate (122 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.0% win rate (498 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.4% win rate (1,425 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.9% win rate (3,159 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.7% win rate (5,777 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.1% win rate (9,511 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (10,589 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.5% win rate (8,368 games)
  • 2500+: 39.6% win rate (1,524 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.1% win rate (7,393 games)
  • Blitz: 47.0% win rate (25,654 games)
  • Rapid: 49.9% win rate (7,498 games)
  • Classical: 47.1% win rate (428 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (176 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (399 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (793 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (230 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (780 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (604 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (859 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (3,505 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,313 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,928 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (2,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (7,062 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (1,964 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (106 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,632 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (5,592 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (778 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (705 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.5% win rate for white (8.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Classical (41.8%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 40.8%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 0.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 41.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 498 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 10.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.5%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.8%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.4%-44.3%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 37.9%-45.7%) win rate for white (428 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubow Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.