TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation

2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 49.5%Based on 2.2K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.0% – 49.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.1%5.2%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation
n=2.2K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 47.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.0% and 49.5%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~41%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.9% win rate (35 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.7% win rate (84 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.3% win rate (165 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.1% win rate (309 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (509 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.5% win rate (568 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.1% win rate (399 games)
  • 2500+: 40.6% win rate (76 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in Rapid (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (367 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (1,346 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (419 games)
  • Classical: 48.8% win rate (20 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 34.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (96 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (297 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (114 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (278 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (45 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 48.1% win rate for white (309 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (45.2%) outperforms Rapid (43.6%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 36.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 165 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 43.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 309 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 42.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 509 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 40.1%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 568 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 42.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 399 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 42.0%-50.5%) win rate for white (367 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-47.4%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 39.7%-47.6%) win rate for white (419 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Bogoljubov Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.