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Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation

210 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 41.6% – 52.8%Based on 210 games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.6% – 52.8%
Outcome Distribution
42.8%8.7%48.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nd7
Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation
Analyzen=210
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate8.7%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.6% and 52.8%), based on 210 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 14%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1400-1599: 22.6% win rate (14 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.0% win rate (29 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (39 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.1% win rate (78 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (32 games)
  • 2500+: 14.3% win rate (2 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (14%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (31 games)
  • Blitz: 42.4% win rate (134 games)
  • Rapid: 41.6% win rate (43 games)
  • Classical: 14.3% win rate (2 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499———
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 42.8%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 210 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 47.2% win rate for white (78 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 91.3 (decisive), meaning 91.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 40.6%-54.7%) win rate for white (134 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed Berlin Defense, Chigorin Variation is slightly favors black with a 48.5% (90% CI: 42.8%-54.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.