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Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation

54K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.6%Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 56.0%Based on 54K games
0%55.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 56.0%
Outcome Distribution
53.0%5.2%41.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...d6
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation
Analyzen=54K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 55.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.3% and 56.0%), based on 54K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.8% win rate (306 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.8% win rate (1,214 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.2% win rate (3,078 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.3% win rate (6,636 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.2% win rate (12,152 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.5% win rate (15,937 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.3% win rate (10,024 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.5% win rate (3,947 games)
  • 2500+: 51.4% win rate (665 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 53.6% win rate (9,945 games)
  • Blitz: 53.3% win rate (32,837 games)
  • Rapid: 51.9% win rate (10,703 games)
  • Classical: 53.0% win rate (473 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (102 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (529 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (554 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (989 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,676 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (402 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (1,604 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (3,970 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,020 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (1,957 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (7,829 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (2,247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (119 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (2,026 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (10,201 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (3,527 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,438 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (5,995 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (2,488 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (103 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (912 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (2,211 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (810 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 82.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.1% expected score (327 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (299 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 54K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (3.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.3%) outperforms Classical (53.0%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 306 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 665 Lichess games. Average game length is 53 moves with a 20.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.4%) win rate for white (9.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.7%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 49.2%-56.8%) win rate for white (473 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.