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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation

54K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.4%Range (90% confident): 44.1% – 44.8%Based on 54K games
0%44.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.1% – 44.8%
Outcome Distribution
41.8%5.2%53.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...d6
Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation
Analyzen=54K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 44.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.1% and 44.8%), based on 54K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 29%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.4% win rate (306 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.7% win rate (1,214 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.5% win rate (3,078 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.0% win rate (6,636 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.2% win rate (12,152 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.1% win rate (15,937 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.0% win rate (10,024 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.4% win rate (3,947 games)
  • 2500+: 28.6% win rate (665 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 42.8% win rate (9,945 games)
  • Blitz: 41.7% win rate (32,837 games)
  • Rapid: 41.6% win rate (10,703 games)
  • Classical: 36.6% win rate (473 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (529 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (554 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (989 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,676 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (402 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,604 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (3,970 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,020 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,957 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (7,829 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (2,247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (119 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (2,026 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (10,201 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (3,527 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (1,438 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (5,995 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (2,488 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (103 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (912 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (2,211 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (810 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (327 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (299 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 54K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (3.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.3%) outperforms Classical (53.0%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 306 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 665 Lichess games. Average game length is 53 moves with a 20.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.4%) win rate for white (9.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.7%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 49.2%-56.8%) win rate for white (473 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Averbakh Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.