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Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit

9.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.4%Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 50.3%Based on 9.0K games
0%49.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 50.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.0%2.8%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.b4
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit
Analyzen=9.0K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 49.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 50.3%), based on 9.0K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -2.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 58%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.1% win rate (361 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.4% win rate (682 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.0% win rate (1,108 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (1,544 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (1,602 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.9% win rate (1,891 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (1,106 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.7% win rate (656 games)
  • 2500+: 58.0% win rate (39 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 51.0% win rate (2,425 games)
  • Blitz: 46.7% win rate (5,037 games)
  • Rapid: 47.6% win rate (1,473 games)
  • Classical: 54.1% win rate (53 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (104 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (145 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (111 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (184 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (315 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (178 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (346 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (541 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (214 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (865 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (267 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (942 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (275 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (280 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (365 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (646 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (92 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (386 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (251 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 50.4% win rate for white (682 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.0%) outperforms Classical (54.1%) by -3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 45.1% (90% CI: 40.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 361 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 682 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.6%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 44.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 656 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.7%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.8%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Spanish Wing Gambit is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.