5.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 46.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 47.9%), based on 5.8K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 49% → 41%
Best in Classical (50%), worst in Blitz (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 43.1% (90% CI: 42.0%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (226 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (45.1%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by -4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a sharpness score of 92.6 (decisive), meaning 92.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 53.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 56.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-62.3%) win rate for white, based on 226 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 46.9% (90% CI: 42.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 349 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 44.4% (90% CI: 41.3%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 700 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 42.0% (90% CI: 40.0%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 40.2% (90% CI: 38.4%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 40.8% (90% CI: 37.0%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 431 Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 19.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 45.1% (90% CI: 42.8%-47.5%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 42.4% (90% CI: 41.0%-43.7%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line has a 42.5% (90% CI: 39.6%-45.4%) win rate for white (777 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.
The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Modern Main Line is slightly favors black with a 43.1% (90% CI: 42.0%-44.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.