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Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%Based on 1.1M games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%3.5%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c3
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 53.8%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.7% win rate (22,335 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.5% win rate (65,410 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.0% win rate (129,630 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.6% win rate (196,915 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.8% win rate (239,129 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.9% win rate (232,632 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (121,008 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.6% win rate (38,767 games)
  • 2500+: 51.7% win rate (5,364 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Bullet (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.8% win rate (72 games)
  • Bullet: 51.4% win rate (271,726 games)
  • Blitz: 51.7% win rate (589,654 games)
  • Rapid: 53.3% win rate (182,917 games)
  • Classical: 55.6% win rate (6,821 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (8,529 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (10,561 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (3,216 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (22,336 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (33,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (9,659 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (134 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (36,737 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (69,415 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (22,963 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (497 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (47,398 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (109,883 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (38,005 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (1,604 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (51,377 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (138,635 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (46,782 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (2,332 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (47,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (141,445 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (42,350 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (1,780 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (33,700 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (69,199 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (17,688 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (420 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (20,187 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (16,366 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (2,184 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 77.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (4,406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.8% expected score (884 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (65K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (57.8%) by -2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 130K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 197K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 239K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 233K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 121K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.5%) win rate for white (272K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate for white (590K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.5%) win rate for white (183K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.6%-56.6%) win rate for white (6.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation, Central Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.