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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.4%Range (90% confident): 40.8% – 42.0%Based on 17K games
0%41.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.8% – 42.0%
Outcome Distribution
39.2%4.3%56.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...a5
Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation
Analyzen=17K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 41.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.8% and 42.0%), based on 17K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 40% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.1% win rate (1,712 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.3% win rate (2,658 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.0% win rate (3,318 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.9% win rate (3,348 games)
  • 1600-1799: 38.9% win rate (2,491 games)
  • 1800-1999: 38.5% win rate (2,032 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.0% win rate (1,254 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.3% win rate (583 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (89 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (42%), worst in UltraBullet (8%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 7.7% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 42.3% win rate (3,752 games)
  • Blitz: 38.9% win rate (9,368 games)
  • Rapid: 37.8% win rate (4,153 games)
  • Classical: 30.5% win rate (207 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (472 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (598 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (1,389 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (665 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (1,752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (860 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (604 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (1,826 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (844 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.2% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (463 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (1,391 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (589 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.8% expected score (1,171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (419 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (316 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (672 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (215 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (316 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.9%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 57.4% win rate for white (3.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (63.1%) outperforms Bullet (55.2%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 53.2%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 56.9% (90% CI: 55.3%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 56.0%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 54.9%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 57.2% (90% CI: 55.6%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 54.9%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 53.2%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 583 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 53.9%-56.5%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.1%-57.7%) win rate for white (9.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 55.2%-57.7%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation has a 63.1% (90% CI: 57.5%-68.5%) win rate for white (207 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Bulgarian Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.9%-57.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.