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Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 54.4%Based on 16K games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 54.4%
Outcome Distribution
52.2%3.0%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nd4
Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.1% and 54.4%), based on 16K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 53% → 59%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.7% win rate (1,344 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.7% win rate (2,500 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.3% win rate (3,671 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.4% win rate (3,860 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.0% win rate (2,842 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (1,230 games)
  • 2000-2199: 56.5% win rate (318 games)
  • 2200-2499: 65.9% win rate (66 games)
  • 2500+: 58.6% win rate (13 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (57%), worst in Blitz (52%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.1% win rate (2,162 games)
  • Blitz: 51.6% win rate (8,032 games)
  • Rapid: 52.1% win rate (5,393 games)
  • Classical: 57.4% win rate (257 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (270 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (709 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (358 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (409 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,391 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (686 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (450 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (2,036 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (1,156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 69.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (422 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,805 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (88 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (327 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (1,043 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (188 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (471 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (137 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 72.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 66.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 65.9% win rate for white (66 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.4%) outperforms Blitz (51.6%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 56.5% (90% CI: 51.9%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 318 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.5%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.2%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred has a 57.4% (90% CI: 52.4%-62.5%) win rate for white (257 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird's Defense Deferred is statistically favors white with a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.