5.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 50.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 51.1%), based on 5.1K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 42% → 40%
Similar across time controls (~46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 47.6% win rate for white (1.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (46.4%) outperforms Classical (44.8%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a sharpness score of 92.5 (decisive), meaning 92.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 171 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 363 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 43.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 698 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.9%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 963 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 10.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 39.6% (90% CI: 35.8%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 439 Lichess games. Average game length is 58 moves with a 19.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.5%-47.9%) win rate for white (933 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.9%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-48.9%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Rio de Janeiro Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.