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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation

3.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.6%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 52.0%Based on 3.2K games
0%50.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
47.2%6.6%46.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.dxe5
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation
Analyzen=3.2K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.6%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 50.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 52.0%), based on 3.2K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (26 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.7% win rate (54 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.8% win rate (114 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.5% win rate (217 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.0% win rate (370 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.7% win rate (606 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (882 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (727 games)
  • 2500+: 47.4% win rate (198 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (650 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (1,917 games)
  • Rapid: 44.5% win rate (588 games)
  • Classical: 43.2% win rate (39 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (59 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (103 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (217 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (101 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (337 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (154 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (596 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (536 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (155 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (43 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (114 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.9%) outperforms Rapid (44.5%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-63.4%) win rate for white, based on 114 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 40.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 217 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 370 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 43.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 606 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 882 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 43.7%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 727 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 41.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 198 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (650 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.8%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.2%-47.9%) win rate for white (588 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Minckwitz Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.