TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation

27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.6%Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 52.1%Based on 27K games
0%51.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 52.1%
Outcome Distribution
49.5%4.2%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation
n=27K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 51.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 52.1%), based on 27K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.1% win rate (1,638 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (3,233 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (4,885 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.7% win rate (5,971 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (4,959 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.9% win rate (3,408 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.3% win rate (1,359 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.5% win rate (954 games)
  • 2500+: 49.0% win rate (226 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (50%), worst in UltraBullet (23%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 23.1% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (6,059 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (14,867 games)
  • Rapid: 47.8% win rate (5,444 games)
  • Classical: 44.9% win rate (258 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (342 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (762 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (528 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (732 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,617 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (850 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (2,547 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (1,034 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (3,487 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,933 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (936 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (728 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,935 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (716 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (346 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (854 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.1% expected score (150 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (626 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (119 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (106 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 27K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (6.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.2%) outperforms Classical (44.9%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.1%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 954 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 43.6%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 226 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.7%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.9%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.9%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 39.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (258 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Kaufmann Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.