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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 47.9%Based on 17K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%5.8%49.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Be7
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation
Analyzen=17K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.8%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 47.9%), based on 17K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.9% win rate (499 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (1,290 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.0% win rate (2,526 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (3,447 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (3,566 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.3% win rate (2,531 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.0% win rate (1,479 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.8% win rate (949 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (465 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 48.1% win rate (4,176 games)
  • Blitz: 43.7% win rate (9,106 games)
  • Rapid: 41.6% win rate (3,338 games)
  • Classical: 37.2% win rate (129 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (194 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (207 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (433 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (632 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (683 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,389 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (447 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (745 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,889 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (769 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (759 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (828 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (489 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (1,367 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (644 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (359 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (861 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (252 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (287 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (588 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (72 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (227 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (232 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.9%) outperforms Bullet (47.7%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.4%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 499 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 949 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 38.2%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 465 Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 14.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.0%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.1%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.3%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-62.6%) win rate for white (129 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Hedgehog Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.