4.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 50.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 51.4%), based on 4.0K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 40% → 48%
Best in Blitz (49%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (280 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (49.2%) outperforms Rapid (45.2%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 40.4% (90% CI: 35.0%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 220 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 480 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 653 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 42.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 811 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 42.9%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 642 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 488 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 41.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 290 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 48.9%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 280 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 40.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 11.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-48.9%) win rate for white (933 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.2%-48.1%) win rate for white (770 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Duras Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.