245 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation has a 60.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.1% and 65.1%), based on 245 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 59%
Best in Bullet (57%), worst in Classical (39%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 245 rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.5% win rate for white (102 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (57.0%) outperforms Rapid (39.4%) by 17.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation has a sharpness score of 79.9 (drawish), meaning 79.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 61 moves.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-66.3%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 71 moves with a 30.4% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 44.1%-58.5%) win rate for white (128 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Cordel Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-55.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.