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Analyzer

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.2%Range (90% confident): 44.8% – 45.6%Based on 41K games
0%45.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.8% – 45.6%
Outcome Distribution
42.5%5.4%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...exd4
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation
Analyzen=41K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 45.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.8% and 45.6%), based on 41K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (1,333 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.4% win rate (3,776 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.5% win rate (6,598 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.9% win rate (9,249 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.9% win rate (8,988 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.4% win rate (6,554 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.4% win rate (3,256 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.3% win rate (1,381 games)
  • 2500+: 42.2% win rate (291 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 44.7% win rate (9,970 games)
  • Blitz: 42.2% win rate (23,003 games)
  • Rapid: 41.2% win rate (8,048 games)
  • Classical: 38.5% win rate (402 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (473 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (645 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (214 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,992 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (637 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,476 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (3,810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,887 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (5,167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,051 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,762 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (1,894 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (3,788 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (1,674 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (525 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 19.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (616 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (655 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (209 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense
51.2%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Classical Variation
48.7%
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Cozio Defense
49.9%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.7%) outperforms Bullet (51.8%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 44.3%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 291 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.6%) win rate for white (10.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.5%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.6%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-59.7%) win rate for white (402 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Wolf Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.