4.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 56.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.6% and 58.1%), based on 4.0K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 56% → 48%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Bullet (51%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (523 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (55.2%) outperforms Bullet (51.4%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 44.2%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 204 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 418 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 684 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 51.6%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 856 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 840 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-59.7%) win rate for white, based on 523 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 332 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 40.7%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 129 Lichess games. Average game length is 47 moves with a 11.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-54.1%) win rate for white (983 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.2%-55.7%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 52.3%-58.1%) win rate for white (802 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.
The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Showalter Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.