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Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation

5.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 54.5%Based on 5.9K games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 54.5%
Outcome Distribution
50.7%5.5%43.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Bg5
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation
Analyzen=5.9K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 53.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 54.5%), based on 5.9K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 58%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.6% win rate (536 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.3% win rate (508 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (814 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (1,114 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.2% win rate (1,281 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.5% win rate (934 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.7% win rate (472 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.3% win rate (178 games)
  • 2500+: 58.1% win rate (63 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.1% win rate (931 games)
  • Blitz: 50.4% win rate (3,191 games)
  • Rapid: 50.4% win rate (1,695 games)
  • Classical: 51.5% win rate (83 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (255 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (78 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (248 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (441 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (219 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (178 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (592 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (160 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (735 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (363 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (111 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (263 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (259 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (103 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.6% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ruy Lopez
51.9%
Variations (5)
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense
55.9%
Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit
53.0%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense
49.9%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation
48.6%
Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall
12.2%
Analyze Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 54.2% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.1%) outperforms Classical (51.5%) by 0.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.0%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 536 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 38.7%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 508 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 814 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 934 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 472 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-54.8%) win rate for white (931 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.8%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-52.4%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Closed Bernstein Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.