3.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 44.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.4% and 46.4%), based on 3.1K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 44% → 55%
Best in Classical (46%), worst in Rapid (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 60.5% win rate for white (181 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (54.3%) outperforms Blitz (52.1%) by 2.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 416 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 54.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 528 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 676 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 682 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 364 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 60.5% (90% CI: 54.5%-66.4%) win rate for white, based on 181 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 40.1%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 54.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-61.5%) win rate for white, based on 130 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.9%-56.6%) win rate for white (807 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.1%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit has a 54.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-57.5%) win rate for white (642 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
The Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.