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Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.5%

40%55%
Floor44.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.0%.

Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
28K
Best context
45.6% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
41.6% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.1% at 0-999, 43.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (75 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (205 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (226 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (513 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (771 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (178 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 67.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,860 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (468 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (1,757 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,470 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (704 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (4,583 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (684 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (4,185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (2,394 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (294 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,871 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (142 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Rubinstein Opening
52.7%
Variations (3)
Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense
54.2%
Rubinstein Opening: Semi-Slav Defense
56.1%
Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubov Defense
51.0%
Analyze Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.1% and 45.0% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate?

Playing the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense, Black wins 42.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense perform best?

The Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 44.9% (7.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.7% in Blitz (14K games) against 45.0% in Rapid (2.4K games).

How sharp is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense?

The Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 39.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 184 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 494 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.9%, draws 6.2% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 159 Lichess games.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense a good opening?

The Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.1% of its games and loses 53.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.