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Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.5%Range (90% confident): 44.1% – 45.0%Based on 28K games
0%44.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.1% – 45.0%
Outcome Distribution
42.1%4.7%53.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...O-O
Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense
Analyzen=28K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 44.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.1% and 45.0%), based on 28K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 37% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.8% win rate (46 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.6% win rate (184 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.3% win rate (494 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.7% win rate (1,484 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.2% win rate (3,444 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.7% win rate (5,990 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.4% win rate (7,862 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.3% win rate (6,882 games)
  • 2500+: 39.9% win rate (2,034 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Rapid (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.7% win rate (13 games)
  • Bullet: 42.2% win rate (12,252 games)
  • Blitz: 42.0% win rate (13,549 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (2,447 games)
  • Classical: 50.8% win rate (159 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (75 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (205 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (226 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (513 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (771 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (178 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 67.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,860 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (468 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (1,757 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,470 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (704 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (4,583 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (684 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (4,185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (2,394 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (294 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,871 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (142 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Rubinstein Opening
52.7%
Variations (3)
Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense
54.2%
Rubinstein Opening: Semi-Slav Defense
56.1%
Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubov Defense
51.0%
Analyze Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate?

The Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense perform best?

The Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 55.1% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.0%) outperforms Classical (45.8%) by 8.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense?

The Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 55.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-61.2%) win rate for white, based on 184 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 50.9%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 494 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 53.0%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 52.9%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.7%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.4%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-53.6%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense has a 45.8% (90% CI: 39.4%-52.3%) win rate for white (159 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense a good opening?

The Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.