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Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.5%

35%55%
Floor42.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.1%.

Measured over 17K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 17K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
17K
Best context
46.3% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
41.0% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.4%
Draws
4.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.8% at 0-999, 44.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 35.8% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (294 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (512 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (112 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (632 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (262 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (957 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (482 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.9% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (3,341 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (548 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (1,906 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,867 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (231 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (628 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (157 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Rubinstein Opening
52.7%
Variations (3)
Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense
53.1%
Rubinstein Opening: Semi-Slav Defense
56.1%
Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubov Defense
51.0%
Analyze Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense scores 43.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.9% and 44.1% — from 17K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
17K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate?

Playing the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense, Black wins 41.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense perform best?

The Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 44.5% (5.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 43.7% in Blitz (9.6K games) against 45.3% in Rapid (1.8K games).

How sharp is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense?

The Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 35.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.7%. It rests on 153 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 38.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.0%. It rests on 350 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 927 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 794 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.5%, draws 12.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 134 Lichess games.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense a good opening?

The Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.2% of its games and loses 54.2%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.