TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense

17K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.5%Range (90% confident): 42.9% – 44.1%Based on 17K games
0%43.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.9% – 44.1%
Outcome Distribution
41.2%4.6%54.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...O-O
Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense
Analyzen=17K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 43.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.9% and 44.1%), based on 17K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.4% win rate (46 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.3% win rate (153 games)
  • 1200-1399: 38.5% win rate (350 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.8% win rate (927 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.7% win rate (2,002 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.4% win rate (3,927 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.9% win rate (5,226 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.0% win rate (4,016 games)
  • 2500+: 39.8% win rate (794 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (42%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 41.1% win rate (5,906 games)
  • Blitz: 41.2% win rate (9,632 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (1,767 games)
  • Classical: 39.5% win rate (134 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 35.8% expected score (125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (294 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (512 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (112 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (632 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (262 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (957 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (482 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.9% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (3,341 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (548 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (1,906 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,867 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (231 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (628 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (157 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Rubinstein Opening
52.7%
Variations (3)
Rubinstein Opening: Classical Defense
53.1%
Rubinstein Opening: Semi-Slav Defense
56.1%
Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubov Defense
51.0%
Analyze Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate?

The Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense perform best?

The Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 58.5% win rate for white (350 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.8%) outperforms Classical (48.3%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense?

The Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 59.9% (90% CI: 53.3%-66.3%) win rate for white, based on 153 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 58.5% (90% CI: 54.1%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 350 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 927 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 55.5% (90% CI: 53.7%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 53.8%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 51.0%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 794 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.7%-56.9%) win rate for white (5.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.6%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-53.4%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 41.3%-55.4%) win rate for white (134 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.2%.

Is the Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense a good opening?

The Rubinstein Opening: Bogoljubow Defense is statistically favors white with a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.