Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation
2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.
Measured over 2.8K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.8K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.8K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 40 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.2%
- Draws
- 8.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 31.9% at 0-999, 51.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 73.4% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (114 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (30 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (181 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (83 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (271 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (99 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (159 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (379 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (88 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (247 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (471 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (58 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (254 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.7% expected score (97 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation scores 51.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 52.8% — from 2.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation, Black wins 46.8%, draws 8.8% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation perform best?
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation performs best for Black at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.0% (368 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.7% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (351 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation?
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 91.2 (decisive), meaning 91.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 189 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 305 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.4%, draws 9.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 461 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 8.5% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 631 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.4%, draws 7.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 778 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.1%, draws 17.7% and loses 37.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 368 Lichess games, which average 50 moves.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 8.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 882 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 8.5% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.5%, draws 12.3% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 351 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 44.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.