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Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense

42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.6%

40%55%
Floor46.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.0%.

Measured over 42K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 42K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
42K
Best context
51.9% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
40.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
94.5%
Draws
5.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.9% at 0-999, 39.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.9% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (72 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (550 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,918 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (585 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,498 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (4,432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,060 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,796 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (8,168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (1,195 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (77 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (4,374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (7,780 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (991 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (836 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.8% expected score (38 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Indian Defense
47.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov Variation
48.3%
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Traditional Variation, Nimzowitsch Line
49.8%
Queen's Indian Defense: Spassky System
48.5%
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Traditional Variation
50.0%
Queen's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Traditional Line
52.6%
Analyze Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense scores 46.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.2% and 47.0% — from 42K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
42K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 42K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense perform best?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 50.3% (2.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.3% in Blitz (25K games) against 46.7% in Rapid (4.2K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 178 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 649 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.0%, draws 10.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 226 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.8% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.