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Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense

42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.6%Range (90% confident): 46.2% – 47.0%Based on 42K games
0%46.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.2% – 47.0%
Outcome Distribution
43.8%5.5%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Be7
Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense
Analyzen=42K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.2% and 47.0%), based on 42K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.9% win rate (34 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.6% win rate (178 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (649 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (1,955 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (3,359 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (7,071 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (12,236 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.6% win rate (13,164 games)
  • 2500+: 39.9% win rate (3,435 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (64%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 45.0% win rate (12,926 games)
  • Blitz: 43.2% win rate (24,698 games)
  • Rapid: 43.4% win rate (4,227 games)
  • Classical: 38.0% win rate (226 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.9% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (72 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (550 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,918 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (585 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,498 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (4,432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,060 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,796 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (8,168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (1,195 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (77 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (4,374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (7,780 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (991 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (836 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.8% expected score (38 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Indian Defense
47.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov Variation
48.3%
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Traditional Variation, Nimzowitsch Line
49.8%
Queen's Indian Defense: Spassky System
48.5%
Queen's Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Traditional Variation
50.0%
Queen's Indian Defense: Fianchetto Variation, Traditional Line
52.6%
Analyze Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 42K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense perform best?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (3.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.9%) outperforms Classical (51.6%) by -0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 43.2%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 649 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.2%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.7%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.3%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.4%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-57.1%) win rate for white (226 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.3%.

Is the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Marco Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.