3.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 49.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 50.7%), based on 3.9K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~46%)
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (32%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 50.8% win rate for white (875 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.3%) outperforms Rapid (47.9%) by 0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 41.1%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 0.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 39.7%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 240 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 509 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 875 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 609 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 43.8%-49.2%) win rate for white (933 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.0%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 43.4%-52.3%) win rate for white (338 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
The Queen's Indian Defense: Kasparov-Petrosian Variation, Hedgehog Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.