TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation

425 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score41.8%Range (90% confident): 37.9% – 45.7%Based on 425 games
0%41.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 37.9% – 45.7%
Outcome Distribution
38.3%6.9%54.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...exd4
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation
Analyzen=425
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.9%

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation has a 41.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 37.9% and 45.7%), based on 425 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 37%

1000
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1600-1799: 27.3% win rate (4 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.2% win rate (19 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (66 games)
  • 2200-2499: 36.2% win rate (229 games)
  • 2500+: 36.7% win rate (106 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (39%), worst in Rapid (26%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • Bullet: 37.9% win rate (71 games)
  • Blitz: 39.2% win rate (334 games)
  • Rapid: 25.6% win rate (20 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599—————
1600-1799————
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation has a 38.3% (90% CI: 34.5%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 425 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 45.2% win rate for white (66 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (39.2%) outperforms Bullet (37.9%) by 1.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation has a 36.2% (90% CI: 31.1%-41.5%) win rate for white, based on 229 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation has a 36.7% (90% CI: 29.3%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 106 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation has a 39.2% (90% CI: 34.9%-43.6%) win rate for white (334 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Sozin Variation is slightly favors black with a 38.3% (90% CI: 34.5%-42.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.