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Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line

3.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.8%Range (90% confident): 56.5% – 59.1%Based on 3.9K games
0%57.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 56.5% – 59.1%
Outcome Distribution
55.0%5.5%39.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Ne6
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line
Analyzen=3.9K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 57.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.5% and 59.1%), based on 3.9K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~60%)

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1200-1399: 27.3% win rate (4 games)
  • 1400-1599: 73.0% win rate (17 games)
  • 1600-1799: 65.4% win rate (65 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.8% win rate (388 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.7% win rate (1,263 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.6% win rate (1,595 games)
  • 2500+: 59.3% win rate (601 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in UltraBullet (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 57.2% win rate (1,236 games)
  • Blitz: 53.6% win rate (2,414 games)
  • Rapid: 57.0% win rate (252 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (21 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (911 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (111 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (522 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (991 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (80 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (401 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (193 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.7%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.3% win rate for white (601 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (57.2%) outperforms Rapid (57.0%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 55.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 388 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 59.3% (90% CI: 56.0%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 601 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 57.2% (90% CI: 54.9%-59.5%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.0%-55.3%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a 57.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-62.1%) win rate for white (252 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line is statistically favors white with a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.7%-56.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.