TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.0%Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 46.7%Based on 16K games
0%46.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%3.3%52.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bxf7+
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 46.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.4% and 46.7%), based on 16K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.1 · Trap factor: -0.5 · n=16K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 62% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 61.9% win rate (9 games)
  • 1000-1199: 65.1% win rate (30 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.9% win rate (71 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.8% win rate (233 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (623 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (1,971 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.7% win rate (5,137 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.8% win rate (5,844 games)
  • 2500+: 46.0% win rate (1,660 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (61%), worst in Blitz (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 61.0% win rate (37 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (5,710 games)
  • Blitz: 41.9% win rate (8,796 games)
  • Rapid: 47.9% win rate (956 games)
  • Classical: 44.1% win rate (79 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (108 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (424 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,295 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (211 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,132 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (3,622 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,591 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (3,022 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,323 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (330 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 57.8% win rate for white (233 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.4%) outperforms Classical (44.1%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 57.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-63.0%) win rate for white, based on 233 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 623 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 43.7% (90% CI: 42.6%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 41.8% (90% CI: 40.8%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.5%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 41.9% (90% CI: 41.1%-42.8%) win rate for white (8.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-50.5%) win rate for white (956 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice is slightly favors black with a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.