TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation

3.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score52.5%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.6%Based on 3.6M games
0%52.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%3.2%45.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Bc4
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
Analyzen=3.6M
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.6%), based on 3.6M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.2% win rate (493,445 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.5% win rate (581,748 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.1% win rate (705,651 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.2% win rate (725,666 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.1% win rate (594,806 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (347,163 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.6% win rate (116,978 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.9% win rate (33,064 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (3,986 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.4% win rate (8,697 games)
  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (905,889 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (1,769,748 games)
  • Rapid: 51.5% win rate (886,973 games)
  • Classical: 51.7% win rate (31,200 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (624 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (88,766 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (218,029 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (184,388 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (1,638 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,355 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (132,995 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (288,938 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (153,894 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (4,566 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (2,706 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (168,910 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (361,847 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (165,332 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (6,856 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (2,576 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (176,994 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (366,976 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (170,341 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (8,779 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (874 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (150,388 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (307,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (129,702 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (6,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (104,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (172,524 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (67,598 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (2,371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (146 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (54,716 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (47,350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (14,583 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (25,143 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (6,764 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (3,699 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (276 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.6M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (582K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.5%) outperforms Bullet (50.1%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 493K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 582K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 706K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 726K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 595K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 347K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 117K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.3%) win rate for white (8.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white (906K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.1%) win rate for white (1.8M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate for white (887K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.1%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.