TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation

1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.4%Based on 1.4M games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
45.5%3.6%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...e6
Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation
Analyzen=1.4M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.3% and 47.4%), based on 1.4M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.6% win rate (133,374 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.6% win rate (216,483 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.8% win rate (285,330 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.7% win rate (299,251 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.9% win rate (224,905 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.7% win rate (125,046 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (51,486 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (20,856 games)
  • 2500+: 40.5% win rate (3,229 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.8% win rate (6,339 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (386,447 games)
  • Blitz: 45.4% win rate (693,417 games)
  • Rapid: 44.6% win rate (263,981 games)
  • Classical: 43.6% win rate (9,776 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (339 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (34,501 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (67,071 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (31,211 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (252 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (844 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (56,022 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (114,851 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (43,679 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (1,087 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (1,339 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (69,737 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (152,738 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (59,196 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (2,320 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (1,716 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (73,645 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (159,122 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (61,461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (3,307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (60,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (117,087 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (44,258 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (2,132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (740 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (47,207 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (56,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (19,669 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (607 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (27,818 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (19,534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (3,816 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (14,477 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (5,633 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (676 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (2,651 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (558 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Nimzowitsch Defense
50.3%
Variations (5)
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation
50.3%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Advance Variation
50.2%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Declined Variation
49.6%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Exchange Variation
48.7%
Nimzowitsch Defense: Williams Variation
50.6%
Analyze Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (225K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.9%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 133K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 216K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 285K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 299K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 225K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 125K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.0%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (386K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.8%) win rate for white (693K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (264K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (9.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?

The Nimzowitsch Defense: Franco-Nimzowitsch Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.