Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred
23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.3%.
Measured over 23K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 23K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 23K
- Best context
- 52.7% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.2% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 60.6% at 0-999, 52.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (71 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (57 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (272 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (245 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (666 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (839 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (113 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,213 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (2,187 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (299 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,840 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (4,026 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (681 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (36 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,990 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (3,506 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (638 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,589 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,674 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (195 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (356 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (131 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred scores 50.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 51.3% — from 23K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 23K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate?
Playing the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 23K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred perform best?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.1% (496 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.0% in Blitz (13K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (2.0K games).
How sharp is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 56.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 135 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 545 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 46.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.2%, draws 7.7% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 496 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.6%, draws 7.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
Is the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred a good opening?
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Normal Variation, Hübner Deferred is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.3% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.