1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 52.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 54.0%), based on 1.6K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 42%
Best in Classical (62%), worst in Blitz (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.2%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.1% win rate for white (321 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (45.0%) outperforms Rapid (33.3%) by 11.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 35.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 107 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 40.7% (90% CI: 36.8%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 415 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 41.0%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 769 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 321 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (378 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.
In Blitz games, the Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 42.6%-47.4%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.
The Nimzo-Indian Defense: Classical Variation, Vitolins-Adorjan Gambit is slightly favors black with a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.2%-46.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.