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Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation

308K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score44.0%Range (90% confident): 43.9% – 44.2%Based on 308K games
0%44.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.9% – 44.2%
Outcome Distribution
42.4%3.3%54.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nce7
Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation
Analyzen=308K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 44.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.9% and 44.2%), based on 308K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · UltraBullet best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.3% win rate (1,207 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.4% win rate (4,093 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (10,927 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.7% win rate (21,715 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.1% win rate (42,460 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.2% win rate (77,917 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.7% win rate (86,658 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.7% win rate (55,162 games)
  • 2500+: 48.0% win rate (7,905 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Blitz (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.8% win rate (1,274 games)
  • Bullet: 43.9% win rate (162,814 games)
  • Blitz: 40.5% win rate (127,569 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (15,890 games)
  • Classical: 40.6% win rate (497 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (494 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (548 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,061 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,587 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (421 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (105 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (6,264 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (3,676 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (863 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (419 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (12,381 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (7,253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (1,605 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (405 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (20,378 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (18,343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (3,214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (198 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (33,441 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (39,063 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (5,055 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (40,247 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (42,556 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (3,656 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (40,305 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (13,896 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (901 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (7,243 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (647 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Mikenas Defense
51.6%
Variations (2)
Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation
52.5%
Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit
55.4%
Analyze Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate?

The Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 42.2%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 308K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation perform best?

The Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 48.4% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (49.8%) outperforms Classical (40.6%) by 9.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation?

The Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 41.7%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 40.2% (90% CI: 39.9%-40.5%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 40.5%-41.0%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-52.1%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.1%) win rate for white (163K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 40.2%-40.7%) win rate for white (128K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 40.7%-42.0%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a 40.6% (90% CI: 37.0%-44.3%) win rate for white (497 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

Is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation a good opening?

The Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation is slightly favors black with a 42.4% (90% CI: 42.2%-42.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.