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Marienbad System

2 variations · 8.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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h8
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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

49.8%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.

Measured over 8.8K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.8K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#21 of 62
Games in this context
8.8K
Best context
50.9% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
48.7% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Variations measured
2
Average game length
39 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Marienbad SystemBest here
1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 b6 3.g3 Bb7 4.Bg2 c5
Floor 49.2% · 7.8K games
50.1%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.6% at 0-999, 48.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (67 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (41 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (86 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (188 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (550 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (77 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (622 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,685 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (134 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,076 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (129 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (828 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (339 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

2 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Marienbad System7.8K games
50.1%Floor 49.2%
2
Marienbad System: Berg Variation956 games
46.5%Floor 43.9%
Analyze Marienbad System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Marienbad System family scores 49.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 50.6% — from 8.8K Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
8.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Marienbad System win rate?

Across the Marienbad System's 2 variations, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 8.8K rated games from Lichess.

How many Marienbad System variations are there?

2 Marienbad System variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Marienbad System perform best?

The Marienbad System family performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (880 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Marienbad System better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Marienbad System scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (5.1K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (511 games).

How sharp is the Marienbad System?

Marienbad System games are 93.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 39 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Marienbad System a good opening family?

The Marienbad System family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.3% and loses 46.8%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.