What is the Marienbad System expected score for Black?
Snapshot
Overall, the Marienbad System family has a 49.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 50.6%), aggregated from 2 variations and 8.8K Lichess games.
Marienbad System
2 variations · 8.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Marienbad System is balanced for Black at 49.8% expected score.
This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.
You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 50.6%Aggregated from 2 variations
0%49.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 50.6%
ContextOverall · n=8.8K
Outcome Distribution
46.3%6.9%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...c5
Marienbad System
Variations2
Games (Context)8.8K
Avg Length39 moves
Draw Rate6.9%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for Black · Overall
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
Black Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 43% → 46%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 42.6% win rate (49 games)
- 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (78 games)
- 1200-1399: 44.0% win rate (120 games)
- 1400-1599: 45.1% win rate (217 games)
- 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (342 games)
- 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (880 games)
- 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (2,446 games)
- 2200-2499: 46.0% win rate (3,452 games)
- 2500+: 46.3% win rate (1,174 games)
Black Win% by Time Control
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
- Bullet: 48.0% win rate (3,109 games)
- Blitz: 45.2% win rate (5,102 games)
- Rapid: 46.7% win rate (511 games)
- Classical: 45.2% win rate (35 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · Black expected scores
Black% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (67 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (41 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (123 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (52 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (86 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (188 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (61 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (237 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (550 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (77 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (622 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,685 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (134 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,243 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,076 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (129 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (828 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (339 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (2)
Analyze Marienbad System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Marienbad System win rate?
The Marienbad System family has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.7%) win rate for white, aggregated from 2 variations and 8.8K rated games from Lichess.
How many Marienbad System variations are there?
This analysis covers 2 Marienbad System variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Marienbad System perform best?
The Marienbad System family performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (2.4K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Marienbad System better in blitz or rapid?
Blitz (47.0%) outperforms Rapid (45.6%) by 1.4% across all Marienbad System variations.
How sharp is the Marienbad System?
Marienbad System games are 93.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 39 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Marienbad System a good opening family?
The Marienbad System family is statistically balanced overall with a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.7%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 2 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.