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Marienbad System: Berg Variation

956 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 56.1%Based on 956 games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 56.1%
Outcome Distribution
50.3%6.4%43.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Qxd4
Marienbad System: Berg Variation
Analyzen=956
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 53.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.9% and 56.1%), based on 956 Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 64% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.6% win rate (15 games)
  • 1400-1599: 68.3% win rate (30 games)
  • 1600-1799: 57.7% win rate (67 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (120 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.9% win rate (245 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.0% win rate (336 games)
  • 2500+: 40.1% win rate (132 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (64%), worst in Blitz (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 52.2% win rate (310 games)
  • Blitz: 48.6% win rate (565 games)
  • Rapid: 52.3% win rate (76 games)
  • Classical: 63.6% win rate (4 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 66.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (121 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (81 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Marienbad System
46.4%
Analyze Marienbad System: Berg Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation win rate?

The Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 956 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Marienbad System: Berg Variation perform best?

The Marienbad System: Berg Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 57.7% win rate for white (67 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.2%) outperforms Rapid (52.3%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation?

The Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 39.9%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 120 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 245 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 336 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 33.2%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 12.4% draw rate.

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-56.8%) win rate for white (310 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Marienbad System: Berg Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.2%-52.1%) win rate for white (565 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Marienbad System: Berg Variation a good opening?

The Marienbad System: Berg Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.