London System

2 variations · 2.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

4...d6

Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

50.7%

45%55%

Floor50.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.1M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

48.4%4.6%47.0%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.1M games

Rank among the families White can choose here: #38 of 56
Games in this context: 2.1M
Best context: 59.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context: 43.2% at 1200-1399 Classical
Variations measured: 2
Average game length: 36 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall

#1London System: Poisoned Pawn VariationBest here

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 d5 3.Bf4 c5 4.e3 Qb6 5.Nc3

Floor 54.5% · 22K games

55.1%

#2London System

1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 g6 3.Bf4

Floor 50.6% · 2.0M games

50.7%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.8% at 0-999, 54.8% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (40 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (13,150 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (17,454 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (7,202 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (141 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (35,429 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (46,133 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (16,917 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (181 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.7% expected score (310 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (65,160 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (89,328 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (31,784 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (736 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (695 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (97,481 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (143,364 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (48,606 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (2,077 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (506 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (120,630 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (188,562 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (52,707 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (2,781 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (649 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (128,418 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (237,627 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (53,093 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (2,389 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (163 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (134,799 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (210,559 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (31,434 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (874 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (34 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (120,554 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (104,871 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (11,104 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (173 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (38,321 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (11,802 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (249 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

2 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

London System: Poisoned Pawn Variation22K games

Winning55.1%Floor 54.5%

London System2.0M games

Balanced50.7%Floor 50.6%

Analyze London System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the London System family scores 50.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 50.8% — from 2.1M Lichess games across 2 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 2.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the London System win rate?

Across the London System's 2 variations, White wins 48.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 2.1M rated games from Lichess.

How many London System variations are there?

2 London System variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the London System perform best?

The London System family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.5% (50K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the London System better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the London System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (1.0M games) against 49.8% in Rapid (253K games).

How sharp is the London System?

London System games are 95.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the London System a good opening family?

The London System family is about level overall. Across its games, White wins 48.4% and loses 47.0%. Results differ between its 2 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.